Data released on the website of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on the 6th showed that the global manufacturing PMI in March 2024 was 50.3%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. It ended 17 consecutive months of operating below 50% and returned to 50%. % expansion range. In the first quarter, the average global manufacturing PMI was 49.6%, higher than the average level of 47.9% in the fourth quarter of last year.
In terms of regions, the manufacturing industry in Asia continues to rise steadily, with the manufacturing PMI rising to above 51%; the recovery of the manufacturing industry in the Americas has strengthened compared with the previous month, with the manufacturing PMI rising above 50%; the recovery of the manufacturing industry in Europe is stable, but the intensity Weak, with the manufacturing PMI rising slightly from last month, but still below 50%; African manufacturing has fluctuated, with manufacturing PMI falling from last month, and below 50%.
Changes in the comprehensive index show that in the first quarter, the global economy showed signs of steady growth. In March, the global manufacturing industry continued to accelerate its recovery based on the stable recovery in the previous two months. The overall recovery trend was better than that in the fourth quarter of last year. In March, the accelerated recovery of manufacturing industries in China and the United States contributed mainly to the steady upward trend of the global economy. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the World Trade Organization have recently released reports, predicting that global trade will improve in the first quarter of 2024.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing analyzed that from the second quarter, whether the global economic recovery can continue to recover rapidly depends on the following aspects: First, the recovery intensity of global market demand, which is the endogenous basis for global economic recovery, needs to continue Observe the subsequent trend of the new orders index of manufacturing in various countries. The second is the degree of improvement in the policy environment. Although major economies in the world are still facing varying degrees of inflationary pressure, it has become a general trend that inflationary pressure has eased in the first quarter of this year compared with last year. The United States, the Eurozone and some developed economies are all considering entering an interest rate cut cycle. The Swiss National Bank has announced an interest rate cut. As more developed economies begin to cut interest rates, it will have a positive impact on the recovery of the global economy; third, it will adversely affect global trade. the degree of mitigation of factors. Judging from the current situation, geopolitical conflicts and trade restrictions are all adverse factors that interfere with global economic recovery. Driven by signs of improvement in the global economy, countries around the world should return to the main tone of multilateral cooperation, reduce trade frictions, seek new ways of trade cooperation, and better promote the continued recovery of the global economy.
European manufacturing industry maintains weak recovery, PMI continues to rise slightly
In March 2024, the European manufacturing PMI was 48.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months. In the first quarter, the European manufacturing industry maintained a recovery trend, but the recovery was still weak. From the perspective of major countries, the British and Italian manufacturing industries show signs of accelerating recovery, with the manufacturing PMI rising to above 50%; France and Germany have weaker recovery efforts, and the manufacturing PMI has declined to varying degrees from the previous month, and is below 50%. , the German manufacturing PMI, which is the locomotive, is still at a low level below 42%.
Germany's weak economic recovery remains the main factor plaguing Europe's economic recovery. Recently, Germany's major economic research institutions have lowered their expectations for Germany's economic growth in 2024 to about 0.1%. Similar to Germany, the Bank of France lowered its economic growth forecast for France to 0.8%, lower than the previous forecast of 0.9%. The weak recovery of the European economy and the easing of inflationary pressures are expected to prompt the European Central Bank to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. Eurostat data showed that the euro zone's harmonized CPI fell to 2.4% in March from 2.6% in February. Prior to the release of this data, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that if the upcoming inflation and wage data are in line with her forecasts, the European Central Bank will lower the key interest rate in June. The release of this data increases the probability that the European Central Bank will accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. In addition, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the European economy cannot be ignored.
The growth rate of Africa's manufacturing industry has slowed down, and the PMI has declined from the previous month.
In March 2024, Africa's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and maintained at 49% and above for 4 consecutive months, showing that the growth rate of Africa's manufacturing industry has slowed down from the previous month, but remains relatively stable. recovery trend. From the perspective of major countries, South Africa's manufacturing industry fluctuates more obviously, with the manufacturing PMI falling from more than 50% last month to below 50%; Nigeria's manufacturing growth rate is relatively stable, with the manufacturing PMI remaining at 51% for 2 consecutive months.
Africa's economy still has great potential for future growth and will be an important force in promoting global economic recovery. Trade exchanges and investment cooperation among African countries are also further enhanced. Close cooperation between major African countries and China is also an important guarantee for Africa's stable economic recovery. China has remained Africa's largest trading partner for many years. In 2024, the growth momentum of China-Africa trade volume will remain strong. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in the first two months of 2024, China-Africa trade volume increased by 13.9% year-on-year. Under the influence of US dollar interest rate hikes, African countries are now also facing the risk of high inflationary pressure and concentrated debt burdens, which will affect Africa's economic recovery to a certain extent.
The recovery of manufacturing in the Americas has strengthened, with PMI rising above 50%
In March 2024, the manufacturing PMI of the Americas was 50.6%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous month, ending the 16 consecutive months of operating below 50%, indicating that the recovery of the manufacturing industry in the Americas has increased. Data from major countries show that the U.S. manufacturing PMI increased significantly from last month and rose to above 50%. Although the manufacturing PMI of Brazil and Mexico declined to varying degrees from last month, they were still above 50%.
The ISM report shows that in March, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. Changes in sub-indexes show that supply and demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry have shown an accelerated growth trend compared with the previous month, and both the production index and the new orders index have increased significantly compared with the previous month. Among them, the new orders index rose to above 51%, and the production index rose to above 54%.
Changes in data show that the U.S. manufacturing industry is showing signs of recovery. Some economic data in the United States have also verified signs of recovery in the U.S. economy from different angles. First, employment activity in the United States has increased. In March, U.S. automatic data processing companies released employment numbers of 184,000, higher than the expected 148,000 and higher than February's 155,000; second, consumer confidence has stabilized. The Conference Board's U.S. consumer confidence index for March was 104.7, little changed from the revised 104.8 in February. The probability of the U.S. economy achieving a "soft landing" is increasing. A survey released by NBC News showed that 27 economists, strategists and fund managers surveyed expected the average probability of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy to be 52%, up from 47% in the January survey. %, which is also the first time the average probability has exceeded 50% since the question was first raised in July 2023.
The accelerated recovery of the U.S. economy and signs of recurring inflationary pressures have led the Federal Reserve to consider delaying the timing of an interest rate cut. The CPI in February announced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics increased by 3.2% year-on-year, higher than the market's previous expectation of 3.1%; the month-on-month increase increased from 0.3% in January to 0.4% last month. Based on changes in CPI data, the Fed has recently become more cautious about cutting interest rates, saying it will decide to cut interest rates only when it is more confident that inflation will continue to fall back to the target level of 2%. Even if inflationary pressure stagnates, the Fed may decide to cut interest rates this year. Choose not to cut interest rates.
Asia's manufacturing industry is stabilizing and rising, with PMI rising to above 51%
In March 2024, the Asian manufacturing PMI was 51.6%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. The increase expanded from the previous month, indicating that the growth rate of the Asian manufacturing industry has accelerated based on the stable growth in the previous two months. From the perspective of major countries, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range after running below 50% for five consecutive months, rising to 50.8%; India's manufacturing PMI rose to above 59%; among major ASEAN countries, Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines The manufacturing PMI remains above 50%.
Changes in data show that Asia's manufacturing growth continues to lead other regions. China, India and major ASEAN countries still play an important leading role in Asia's economic growth. The "Asian Economic Prospects and Integration Process 2024 Annual Report" released by the Boao Forum for Asia stated that Asia's economic growth rate is expected to reach 4.5% in 2024, and the GDP scale of Asian economies is expected to account for 49% of the global share. Compared with other regions, Asian countries pay more attention to regional cooperation, have a more inclusive and open development environment, and are more resilient in development.
