In 2023, in the context of the continuous transformation of new and old potential energy, the domestic car market has experienced an extraordinary year. The new car market sales reached a record high, the second-hand car trading volume stabilized and recovered, and the automobile export turned over a bright "report card", and the automobile market responded to the doubts of all parties with actual performance. Looking forward to the car market in 2024, from the overall car market operation to the consumer market demand, it will change with the accelerating pace of transformation and development of the car market. At this key node, it is of great significance for the development of the automobile consumer market to predict the trend and future development trend of the automobile market in the next year. It is expected that the car market will stabilize next year since the car market entered the adjustment cycle in 2018, whether annual car sales can achieve positive growth is the focus of concern in the industry. The stable new car market is an important basis for the sustainable and healthy development of the overall car market. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data show that from January to November this year, the domestic car market sales increased by more than 10%, significantly exceeding market expectations, and annual sales are expected to break the 30 million mark. For a long time, China's annual car sales have been hovering in the range of 25 million to 29 million. Therefore, there is always a voice in the industry: the development bottleneck of the domestic new car market is about 27 million. Under the new development stage, what direction will the car market develop next year?
In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said in an interview with the reporter of China Consumer News that considering the consumer market demand and the current market environment of the car market, it is expected that the car market will continue to achieve positive growth next year. Among them, as an important part of the new car market, the total retail sales of passenger vehicles in 2024 is expected to reach 22.2 million units, an increase of 3% from this year. Chen Liran, director of forecasting research at the China Automotive Strategic Development Research Center at Tianjin University, shared the same view. She told China Consumer News that China's auto market will maintain a stable growth trend in 2024, and new car sales are expected to grow at about 10% year-on-year. Specifically, the growth rate of the domestic market for fuel vehicles has continued to decline, and the export market for fuel vehicles has steadily increased. According to the sales of 30 million cars this year, if the sales of new cars to achieve 10% growth, this means that next year's car sales will be expected to reach 33 million units, a new stage of development. In recent years, with the significant improvement of the comprehensive strength of products and the more mature infrastructure construction, the market position of new energy vehicles based on pure electric models has been rapidly improved. Up to now, the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market has reached 33% in one month, and it still maintains a rapid growth rate. It can be predicted that the future new car market to complete the promotion goal will largely rely on the strong performance of the new energy vehicle market. The industry generally believes that the annual sales of new energy vehicles next year will undoubtedly break through the 10 million mark, and the market penetration rate will reach more than 40%.
Chen Liran predicted that the overall new energy vehicle market will maintain rapid growth next year, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles will still grow at a high speed, the market share of new energy commercial vehicles will further increase, and the growth rate of overseas exports of new energy vehicles will slow down. "What is different from the past is that with the rapid development of hybrid technology, hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles are expected to account for 50% of the share, instead of pure electric models dominate the situation." However, in the view of Wang Xuechao, deputy director of the China Automotive Research and Political Research Consulting Center, in the medium and long term, new energy vehicles are still dominated by pure electric products, and it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 10 million next year. In the short and medium term, there is also a certain market for plug-in models, and it is expected that the proportion of pure electric and extended-range markets in the new energy vehicle market next year will be 65:35. Multi-brand strategic cooperation is the direction with the rapid development of intelligent network technology, the independent brand that takes the lead in intelligent electric vehicles with its relative leading technical strength, resulting in the leading advantage accumulated by foreign brands in the era of traditional fuel vehicles is being greatly weakened. Data show that the market share of independent brands has risen to more than 59% in November. There are signs that the rising market share of independent brands is likely to climb to more than 60% next year.
It is not difficult to see that the current joint venture brand faces difficulties. According to the analysis, there are many reasons for the lagging development of new energy vehicles under the main joint venture brand, such as excessive investment in research and development of traditional fuel models, resulting in insufficient research and development of new energy vehicles or lagging strategic layout. Obviously, such a development situation can no longer meet the current consumer market demand for cars. Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Association, told China Consumer News that because automobile companies have significantly increased their research and development investment in the field of electrification, competition in the new energy vehicle market will undoubtedly be more intense next year. The reporter noted that since last year, the joint venture car companies under the pressure of reality, have to electrification direction as the focus of development, a number of joint venture new energy vehicles concentrated into the consumer market, trying to fill the gap in the product lineup at the same time, to win the recognition of the consumer market. However, after the layout of the new energy field, the market share of the joint venture brand has not only stopped falling as expected, but also accelerated the pace of decline, and even Dongfeng Infiniti and GAC Mitsubishi and other car companies were forced to withdraw from the market due to poor market performance. Facing the pressure of market competition, the joint venture car companies have reached the node where they must adjust the brand development strategy. Objectively speaking, after years of precipitation, the joint venture brand still has comprehensive advantages in the overall market size, brand value and other aspects, and the joint venture brand is not without opportunities in the context of transformation and development. The reporter noted that some joint venture brands are complying with the development trend by improving the research and development of electrification technology. In addition, the choice and independent brands to strengthen cooperation in the field of technology, product research and development gradually replaced the traditional foreign brand one-way input mode.
