On January 8, Lin Jinwen, vice president of Polar Krypton Intelligent Technology, who is sprinting to the New York Stock Exchange, told the Shanghai Securities News that the new car delivery target of polar Krypton in 2024 is 230,000 vehicles. According to polar Krypton's previous statistics, in 2023, the company's cumulative new car deliveries exceeded 110,000 vehicles, an increase of 65%. This means the company will double its delivery target for 2024. For the new energy vehicle market in 2024, there are optimistic forecasts from enterprises to industry associations. "China is expected to sell 31 million cars in 2024, including 11.5 million new energy vehicles." Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAM"), said that with the gradual recovery of China's economy and the development of new energy vehicles, it is expected that the demand for the auto market will continue to maintain stable growth, and the future Chinese auto market will enter a new stage of 30 million units.
"In 2024, the position of China's new energy vehicles in the domestic and global markets will be further enhanced." Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Committee, predicted that the global sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 20 million in 2024, and China will contribute 60% of global sales. Zhang Yongwei said that China will continue to be the "weather vane" of the global new energy vehicle industry. It is estimated that in 2024, China's power battery and material shipments will still account for more than 50% of the world, and will accelerate the landing through global cooperation and overseas production capacity layout. "China's key technologies and production levels such as batteries, motors and intelligent cabins lead the world, the average driving range of pure electric passenger cars exceeds 460 kilometers, and many new technologies have emerged and landed in China." Zhang Yongwei said that with China's new energy vehicles occupy an important market position, the position of the domestic new energy vehicle industry chain has been further improved, and China has accelerated to become the global automotive supply chain center. In 2024, the development of the new energy automobile industry will continue to drive investment and financing in infrastructure, auto parts, intelligent manufacturing and other fields.
Recently, Geely Galaxy E8, Dongfeng Nano 01, Chery Fengyun A8D and other Chinese independent brand new energy new models have been intensively listed. Hao Hong, director of market and brand management of SAIC Quality and Economic Operation Department, said that on the new energy vehicle track, the penetration rate of Chinese independent brands has exceeded 80%, while the previously strong joint venture brands are less than 10%. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Federation, said that thanks to technological innovation, especially the promotion of extended range and plug-in hybrid technology, China's own brand new energy vehicles will usher in strong growth in 2024.
BYD ro-ro transport ship EXPLORER 1 recently completed a 7-day sea trial in Yantai, Shandong province, the ship is a large ro-ro transport ship, the ship has a striking "BYD" red logo. According to the news of Guangzhou Shipbuilding International, its 7,000 car dual-fuel vehicle carrier (PCTC) project ship 1 has begun in Nansha, Guangzhou, and the project plans to build a total of two ships. In response to industry rumors that BYD "bought a boat to go to sea", BYD officials responded to reporters that the company rented two ro-ro transport ships from Yantai, Shandong province, with a delivery time of 2024, and confirmed that the company "is indeed buying a boat". Industry experts said that as a new energy vehicle giant BYD, cross-border investment in shipping vessels is driven by the rapid increase in demand for the company's car exports. In the whole year of 2023, BYD exported 242,800 new cars, an increase of 334.2%. Byd also announced recently that it will build a new production base for new energy vehicles in Szeged City, Hungary, to further deepen its overseas layout.
Galaxy Securities research report believes that BYD's accelerated layout in overseas markets will bring new increments to the company's sales and help the company's sales continue to maintain rapid growth. Galaxy Securities estimates that BYD's sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 3.8 million in 2024, of which export sales are expected to reach 500,000. Byd's move is a microcosm of Chinese car companies going offshore. At present, Nio, zero Run, Nezha, Gao He and other new car manufacturing forces have proposed a 2024 overseas market layout plan, SAIC, GAC, Geely, Great Wall and other traditional car enterprise groups are also promoting the process of their brands to go to sea, SAIC and other enterprises are still preparing to build factories in Europe and other regions. China Automobile Association data show that in 2017, China's car exports were less than 1 million, and the final data of 2023 car exports is expected to exceed 5 million for the first time. Xu Haidong introduced that according to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, the total volume of China's automobile exports will reach 5.5 million in 2024.
Zhongtai Securities research report believes that 2024 will be the year of China's automobile export volume. The export of domestic car companies will enter the universal volume stage, and gradually transition from "local manufacturing global sales" to "global manufacturing global sales", and the overseas profit of car sales is expected to be significantly better than the domestic market. Liu Luochuan, director of Dongfeng's Strategic Development Research Center, said that by 2030, China's overseas car sales are conservatively estimated to reach 12 million units. Among them, 6 million were exported and 6 million were produced and sold overseas. "While exporting products, car companies will also export technical standards and brands. It is expected that the construction of overseas plants will accelerate in the next few years as Chinese auto exports peak." Liu Luochuan said.
