The agency pointed out that it is expected that the Q4 policy end or will take many measures in parallel to promote demand recovery, iron ore prices fell first and then rose, double focus prices fell, steel mills are still losing money, some furnace maintenance, some active production reduction, environmental protection limited production, steel prices or will pick up, optimistic about Q4 steel mill profit repair.
1, 2023Q1-Q3 steel plate rebound significantly, of which Q3 accelerated improvement. 2023Q1-Q3 steel sector rose, Q3 with the recovery of steel demand in a single quarter, steel prices stopped falling, Q3 rebar average price fell only 1.14%, hot rolled average price fell only 1.01%, and cold rolled average price rose 4.33%, cold rolled price performance is strong. 2023Q1-Q3, SW steel sector rose 2.14%, ranking 17th in Shenwan industry; 2023Q3 single quarter SW steel sector rose 2.28%, ranking 7th in the Shenwan industry.
2. Last week, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.12%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.37pct; hot metal production fell. On the demand side, the overall consumption of the five major categories fell slightly, and the transaction volume of construction steel increased month-on-month. On the raw material side, iron ore prices rose last week, mainly because iron ore inventories were at low levels; bicoke prices have fallen; on the profit side, rebar per ton steel and hot coil gross profit margins have improved, while cold rolling profits have hardly improved. On the inventory side, the downstream warehouses of steel billets are obvious this week. Although the five major varieties have been destocked, hot coil stocks are already at the highest level in history, making it difficult to destock. It is expected that Q4 policies may take multiple measures in parallel to promote demand recovery. Iron ore prices first fell and then rose, double-coke prices fell back, and steel mills are still losing money. Some furnaces have been shut down for maintenance, some have taken the initiative to reduce production, and environmental protection production restrictions have been increased. Steel Prices may recover, and we are optimistic about Q4 steel mills' profit recovery.
3, the four major mines maintain the delivery and production targets unchanged, and it is expected that the annual iron ore shipments and port arrivals will remain stable compared with 2022. Demand side, pre-festival steel demand off-season, steel loss negative feedback, environmental protection limit production increase, molten iron production is expected to decline, iron ore demand or will decline, the current iron and steel enterprises operating rate fall signs are obvious; In December, steel mills restock before the Spring Festival, due to low inventory, iron ore "relative demand" encountered support. Inventory end, steel mills, port inventory are at a historical low, is expected in November, with the decline in hot metal production, steel mill inventory or will decline slightly, and the end of the steel mill before the holiday replenishment demand, the lack of demand, steel mill inventory, port inventory or will both rise, but due to low inventory, there is still support for iron ore prices. In the absence of significant supply, relative demand is first weak and then strong. Iron ore prices may fall before the Spring Festival.
4, the proportion of steel sector fund holdings increased slightly. From the perspective of fund holdings: 2023Q3 steel sector allocation rose 0.01pct to 0.44%. Since 2020Q4, with the promotion of "double carbon" and other policies, the overall steel price center of gravity has increased, the consolidation of the superimposed industry has gradually increased, the competition pattern of the steel industry is expected to improve, and the proportion of the fund for steel allocation has gradually risen, from 0.15% of 2020Q3 to 0.80% of 2021Q3. However, as the center of gravity of 2021Q4 steel prices moved down, the profit expectations of the steel sector deteriorated, and the allocation ratio of the fund to the steel sector continued to decline to 0.38% of 2023Q1. 2023Q2 steel sector allocation ratio rose quarter on quarter, 2023Q3 fund on the total allocation of steel slightly declined, but due to the overall fund holdings of the total decline is larger, 2023Q3 steel sector allocation ratio passively increased by 0.01pct to 0.44%.
