On December 6, according to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI(purchasing Managers' index) in November 2023 was 48%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, and it has been running below 50% for 14 consecutive months. China Logistics Information Center analyst Wu Wei told the Securities Daily reporter that from the perspective of the global monetary policy environment, due to the easing of inflationary pressure in the United States and the eurozone, the market's expectations for continued interest rate hikes have fallen sharply, and the expectation of interest rate cuts next year has warmed up. If more central banks announce interest rate cuts, it will help ease the downward pressure on the global economy. In the long run, the stabilization of the global economy still depends on the endogenous recovery of countries after the stable recovery of the trade environment. In Wuwei's view, the stable recovery of the global economy will be accompanied by the following characteristics: First, the global manufacturing industry enters the replenishment cycle; Second, the real purchasing power of people in all countries has steadily picked up. Third, inflation pressure has eased significantly. Fourth, the resilience of global industrial and supply chains has gradually improved. Data show that in November, the European manufacturing PMI was 45.8%, up 1.2 percentage points from October, hitting a new high since the second half of the year, but the index level is still below 50% for 16 consecutive months, and at a low level of about 46%.
Wu Wei said that from the change of European manufacturing PMI data, the European economy is still in the trend of weak operation, but there are signs of narrowing the decline in November, and it remains to be seen whether the subsequent bottoming out can be achieved. "In terms of inflation, the preliminary reading of inflation in the euro area has fallen to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October. While the ECB remains cautious about inflationary pressures, market expectations of an ECB rate cut have increased." Wu Wei believes that the poor economic data in Europe has significantly reduced the likelihood of further interest rate hikes in the eurozone. At the same time, in November, the Americas manufacturing PMI was 47.2%, the same as in October, 13 consecutive months below 50%, showing that the Americas manufacturing industry remained weak, little changed from the previous month. The ISM(US Institute for Supply Management) report shows that in November, the US manufacturing industry remained weak, with the manufacturing PMI at 46.7%, the same as in October, and 13 consecutive months below 50%. In November, the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, the same as the previous month, and for 11 consecutive months in more than 50%, showing that the Asian manufacturing industry did not fluctuate much from the previous month, maintaining a relatively stable growth trend. From the perspective of major countries, China's manufacturing industry is generally stable, and the manufacturing PMI edged down 0.1 percentage points from October to 49.4%.
Wu Wei believes that the Asian economy continues to grow steadily, and developing countries are still an important supporting force for global economic recovery. The OECD's latest economic outlook predicts China's economy will grow by 5.2 per cent in 2023, up from 5.1 per cent in its previous forecast. The strong consumer base in China and other major Asian countries is the main driving force for the global economic recovery. The impact of global trade frictions on Asian countries still exists, and developing countries need to take the initiative to deal with it. In particular, under the RCEP framework, major Asian countries will play an important role in stabilizing the global industrial chain and supply chain. In addition, in November, the African manufacturing PMI was 48%, up 0.6 percentage points from October, but it still ran below 50% for six consecutive months, and the index level is still lower than the average in the third quarter, showing that the decline in the African manufacturing industry narrowed from the previous month, but the overall weak operation situation is still maintained.
