In 2023, with the overall growth of the new car market, traditional auto parts companies such as engines and tires have achieved performance growth, but more traditional parts companies have poor performance. The transformation of the automotive industry to electrification and intelligence has led to the different fate of traditional auto parts and new parts companies. Compared with traditional parts companies, the incremental parts industry such as domain controllers and lidar has generally achieved faster growth and higher profit levels. From the performance results, with the deepening of the transformation of the automotive industry, the auto parts industry has completed a round of "replacement" at the business level. At present, parts companies generally enter the intelligent electric circuit to find new revenue growth points, overseas development has become a new direction, more and more parts companies follow the pace of Oems customers to go to sea, began to actively build factories overseas supporting facilities. The performance of traditional parts manufacturers is flat
In 2023, the engine industry achieved a small growth in the context of significant growth in the new car market. Zhiyan Consulting data show that from January to November 2023, the cumulative output of the engine industry reached 20.4120 million units, an increase of 5.75%, but the growth rate was significantly lower than that of the new car market. At present, the vast majority of automobile engines are produced by vehicle enterprises. Taking November 2023 as an example, the top 20 domestic engine manufacturers in terms of output are all vehicle enterprises or subsidiaries of vehicle enterprises. Among them, Chery automobile engine production 191,000 units, ranked first, in addition to Chery Automobile, the engine production of more than 100,000 units in the month also include FAW-Volkswagen, Geely Automobile, BYD, Great Wall Automobile, Changan Automobile. Under the background of the growth of demand, the cost of raw materials, sea freight and other costs, the tire industry will show both production and sales in 2023. Related industry data show that in 2023, China's total steel tire production of 139 million, an increase of 14%; China's cumulative output of semi-steel tires is 591 million, an increase of 22%. Roland Berger said in the "2023 Global Auto Parts Supplier Study" that tires, or the only traditional auto parts segment with stable returns, are also mainly due to their large share of the aftermarket business.
Among listed companies, Linglong Tire is expected to return to the mother's net profit of 1.35 billion to 1.61 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 362% to 451%; Guizhou Tire is expected to return to the mother's net profit of 790 million to 850 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 84.24% to 98.23%; General shares are expected to return to the mother's net profit of 200-270 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 1079% to 1492%. As the fuel vehicle market gradually peaks, many traditional auto parts companies are under greater performance pressure during the transition period. Quanfeng Automobile is expected to achieve a net loss of 490 million to 590 million yuan in 2023. It is understood that Quanfeng Automobile is mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of aluminum alloy and ferrous metal auto parts, and the products are mainly used in automotive transmission systems, engine systems, steering and braking systems. "In 2023, the company is still in the transition period from traditional auto parts to new energy auto parts, and from small and medium-sized parts to medium and large parts", Quanfeng Automobile mentioned in explaining the loss in 2023 that more new projects of the company are in the initial production efficiency and through-rate are in the climbing process, resulting in higher unit variable costs. Compared with traditional components, the production and sales of incremental components for intelligent electric vehicles are growing more rapidly. According to Gaogong intelligent vehicle data, in the first half of 2023, the Chinese market (excluding imports and exports) delivered 1.176,700 passenger car pre-installation standard cabin controllers, an increase of 67.98% year-on-year, and the penetration rate reached 12.7%, an increase of 4 percentage points over the whole year of 2022.
In addition to the domain controller, other incremental components of intelligent electric vehicles generally achieved rapid production and sales growth in 2023. Among them, although there is no overall data of the industry, a number of head companies in 2023 have easily achieved far more than the delivery of 2022, for example, the second quarter delivery of Hesai technology 45,600 units, an increase of 27 times. Not only production and sales, but also the profit level of most incremental parts companies far exceeds that of traditional parts companies. According to Roland Berger's Global Automotive Parts Supplier Study 2023, the average profit margin of battery suppliers is twice that of traditional parts suppliers, while the profit margin of semiconductor and software suppliers from outside the automotive sector is more than four times that of traditional parts suppliers. In the A-share auto parts listed companies that have released A performance forecast for 2023, companies that are mainly engaged in intelligent electric vehicle parts business such as automotive electronics, electric drive motors, lightweight and structural parts, and charging and replacing electric vehicles generally achieve profit growth. Joyson Electronics is expected to return to the mother in 2023 net profit growth of about 176%. It is understood that Junsheng Electronics has two major business segments: automotive safety, automotive electronics (intelligent cockpit/connected system, intelligent driving, new energy management, etc.). Junsheng Electronics has disclosed that in the first half of 2023, new customer orders (full life cycle) exceeded 42 billion yuan, of which new energy vehicles related new orders exceeded 30 billion yuan, accounting for more than 70%.
Topu Group expects 2023 net profit growth of 20.58% - 32.34%. For the reasons for the growth in performance, Topu Group said that the sales of lightweight chassis, thermal management and other businesses grew rapidly, the automotive electronics business ushered in a harvest period, and a number of projects such as smart electric door systems were gradually mass-produced, the proportion of international business continued to increase, and the value of bicycles supporting the head intelligent electric vehicle enterprises continued to increase. It is worth noting that some traditional parts companies have also achieved performance growth by accelerating the layout of the new energy vehicle market. Among them, the car pump and oil pump manufacturer Feilong shares is expected to return to the mother in 2023 net profit of 250 million to 280 million yuan, an increase of 197.15% to 232.81%. For the growth of performance in 2023, Feilong Shares believe that it is related to its own seize the opportunity of the growth of the hybrid car market: "The penetration rate of turbocharger increases, the rapid growth of hybrid vehicles, and the turbocharger housing products maintain a certain growth rate; The new energy industry has developed rapidly, the proportion of hybrid and pure electric vehicles has increased, the civil fields such as liquid cooling servers and energy storage have continued to expand, and new energy thermal management products have increased."
From the export value point of view, auto parts and vehicles are not inferior. According to the General Administration of Customs data, from January to November 2023, the export value of auto parts was 90.54 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.6%, accounting for 47.3% of the total export value of auto goods. It is understood that some overseas countries have higher import tariffs on vehicles, but lower import tariffs on auto parts. In March 2023, the official gazette of the Brazilian government said that according to the resolution 466 of the Management Executive Committee of the Foreign Trade Committee, import tariffs on some auto parts not produced in the country were reduced to zero. Cicc data show that the amount of China's auto parts exports has continued to grow in the past 30 years, especially in the past three years. At the same time, Chinese auto parts companies continue to deepen the development of overseas markets. From 2010 to 2022, the average overseas revenue of the A-share auto parts sector increased rapidly from 7% to 25%. In 2023, following the pace of downstream OEM customers to layout overseas markets, many Chinese auto parts companies have also begun to actively promote overseas plant construction.
Data show that Mexico is the largest supplier of auto parts to the United States, and GM, Ford, Nissan, Volkswagen and other car companies have production bases in Mexico. In 2023, Tesla also announced that it will build a new factory in Mexico. In order to seize the opportunity of Tesla's new factory, Tesla's Chinese parts suppliers such as Xusheng Group and Aikodi have launched plans to build factories in Mexico. In March 2023, the lightweight solution supplier Xusheng Group announced that in addition to setting up a wholly-owned subsidiary and Sun company in Hong Kong, China, the company will also establish production bases in the United States and Mexico. The purpose is to meet the needs of overseas business development, further expand the North American market, quickly respond to local customers' technical service and after-sales service needs, and achieve rapid delivery of products. In July 2023, aluminum alloy precision die casting supplier Akedi also announced that it planned to increase 1.2 billion yuan, mainly for the production of new energy vehicle structural parts and three power system parts in Mexico, which will help the company expand its North American market share and improve the overseas new energy automobile industry supply system.
