After the National Day steel prices continue to rebound slightly, continuing the good trend at the end of September. Financial association reporters interviewed the industry learned that the support of the cost end, as well as the continuous introduction of infrastructure and real estate favorable policies, so that the steel market atmosphere in the eleventh period has been relatively obvious changes, some steel trade confidence improved, enter the willingness to enhance.
Cost support and price stability Market confidence has gradually stabilized
Tangshan Yue Xin iron and steel person in charge Liu Huajie said to finance association reporter: "Eleven period demand is OK, there are some starting volume."
"In fact, the price of steel every day only fluctuated ten pieces of twenty words is the best, slowly the popularity of up." Shijiazhuang area steel trade business to financial association reporters said.
Early October, steel market prices continue to rise slightly, market confidence has been restored. On the one hand, the stability of the steel price comes from the support of the cost end. The coking coal and iron ore prices have always been running at a high level. The recent determination of the long-term price of coking coal in the fourth quarter also provides a certain support to the steel cost in the fourth quarter. Financial association reporters learned from a number of industry exchanges, the fourth quarter of the coking coal association price did not decline significantly, and the third quarter of the price basically remained stable.
And iron ore price fluctuation range is more limited, Tangshan area iron ore PB powder price quoted 770 yuan/ton or so. Dongwu futures industry analyst Zhu Shaonan said to Caiassociated reporters: "We estimate the iron ore supply and demand structure is still loose, the domestic side near the end of the year port or to accumulate, is expected to increase the accumulated storage of more than 10 million tons or so, overseas demand this year has also fallen. However, due to the cost support of non-mainstream mines and the depreciation of the renminbi, the possibility of the iron ore price falling significantly is not very big. Referring to the market bottom price of around 600 yuan/ton last year, there is not much room for lower prices."
On the basis of cost support, steel price price fluctuation decreases, demand picks up, steel market confidence gradually stabilized.
There are steel traders in Shandong region said to the finance association reporter: "in recent months the market fluctuation is not big, tons of steel price fluctuation up and down 200 yuan, is stable, the key is demand, some funds in place of the end began to end, driven building materials."
Although there is a National Day holiday, but the first ten days of October downstream demand overall continued the good trend in late September. According to Minsheng securities, the apparent consumption of rebar steel during the National Day period was 2.589 million tons, week on week decreased by 1,028 million tons, compared with last year's National Day period increased by 1089 million tons.
Financial Association reporters learned from the Shanghai Steel industry group that the current October consumption is still relatively certain, China's manufacturing PMI back above the expansion and contraction line, terminal, auto performance is bright, other industries slowly repair. The market is mainly focused on domestic demand and consumption, especially in infrastructure, special bond funds, intensive rush work in September and October is more prominent, and short-term continuity remains. Taken together, demand may continue in October.
Real estate policy continued to force long-term confidence began to strengthen
As the biggest demand market for steel, the real estate market in some cities began to recover with the continuous optimization of the regulation policy of "one city, one policy". Relevant industry surveys show that the Yangtze River Delta region of new home prices rising trend is obvious, the Greater Bay Area multi-city second-hand housing listing average price also rose.
Before the holiday, the central bank decided to cut the loan rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund from October 1, 2022. This year's "National Day" holiday, although the transaction area of new commercial housing still decreased year-on-year, but the second-hand housing market showed a significant recovery, in some cities the number of second-hand housing transactions more than twice that of the same period last year.
Data released by the Shell Research Institute shows that the daily number of second-hand housing transactions in 50 cities monitored by Shell increased by about 54% year on year. Among them, the policy encouragement factor plays an important role. With the continued strength of the national real estate "deregulation" policy and the continuous follow-up and implementation of supporting policies, the real estate industry is expected to improve in the later period.
Billion Han think tank executive president, macro chief researcher Zhang Huadong told Cailianhe reporters that the real estate market last year from a low base, the current market has basically stabilized, but the recovery is still difficult. There is room for further policy release. With stronger policy measures in late October, the industry is likely to recover by the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second.
Real estate continued good policy also to steel traders to restore long-term confidence to help. Shanghai steel industry group believes that the steel downstream real estate policy trend is unchanged, sales are expected to gradually recover, the profit rate of housing enterprises gradually hit bottom. After the two sessions is also expected to have relevant policy support, generally speaking, there is still a good trend.
Hebei area steel traders said: "Now look at the real estate market gradually began to tamp the bottom of the policy, although not to see the bottom of the market, but also have a better expectation."
"From the second half of September, the transaction volume has been rising, until now, the overall situation is still good, although I can not say how optimistic, but for downstream properties and other aspects of the expectation is not what it was before," Liu Huajie further said, "the current price may be high in the short term, but in the long term, relative to next year or low, some industry big coffee or in advance on the disk to do winter storage layout."
