Although the downward pressure on China's foreign trade has increased, from a worldwide perspective, the decline in foreign trade is a common problem faced by all countries. Based on the resilience of China's foreign trade, the focus of stabilizing foreign trade is not to stabilize export market share, but to solve growth problems and structural problems. Entering 2023, the fluctuation of China's foreign trade performance has increased, but from a worldwide perspective, the grim foreign trade situation is a common problem faced by many economies. In the context of the global economic downturn and generally sluggish trade, the market share of China's foreign trade has remained stable on the whole, and there are many structural highlights. Looking forward to the whole year, on the one hand, we must strengthen confidence and see the resilience and potential of China's foreign trade development; On the other hand, we must face up to the multiple challenges facing stable foreign trade, and relevant policies and measures should pay attention to the long-term and overall nature, overall coordination, internal and external consideration, and jointly promote the recovery of foreign trade.
According to Chinese Customs statistics, from the cumulative year-on-year export amount, China's exports from January to July 2023 were 1,944.9 billion US dollars, down 5% year-on-year (the following are year-on-year). From the point of view of the export amount in the same month, although foreign trade rebounded in March and April, the rebound did not last - after the decline in export growth in May and June, the export amount fell by 14.5% in July, hitting the largest monthly year-on-year decline since March 2020. It should be noted that the actual growth of China's foreign trade is better than the nominal growth reflected in the foreign trade data. Taking May 2023 export data as an example, according to the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), China's export price index fell 4.3% in May 2023 compared with a 4.9% increase in May 2022. Excluding the impact of lower commodity prices, the volume of exports of goods in May 2023 fell by 5.1% year-on-year, less than the decline in nominal exports of goods (-7.1% year-on-year).
First, the importance of the US market has declined, and ASEAN has replaced the US as China's largest export destination for goods for the first time. From January to July 2023, China's exports to the US accounted for 14.5% of total exports, and China's exports to ASEAN accounted for 15.7% of total exports, which is the first time since 2000 that China's exports to ASEAN exceeded its exports to the US. Second, China's economic and trade ties with countries and regions along the Belt and Road have been further strengthened. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2023, China's imports and exports to countries and regions along the "Belt and Road" increased by 9.8% year-on-year; Imports and exports to RCEP members increased by 1.5% year-on-year; Exports to Russia rose 78.1 percent year on year, accounting for 3.1 percent of China's total exports, up from 2.1 percent in 2022.
Third, the mainland's exports to Hong Kong have declined significantly. From January to July 2023, the mainland's exports to Hong Kong fell by 9.4% year-on-year, reflecting the continuing impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the export patterns of the two places. Before the epidemic, the production and export of enterprises in the mainland depended on the repeated trips of semi-finished products and finished products between the two places, which strengthened the trade between the two places. During the epidemic period, affected by factors such as poor customs clearance, such production and export modes have become more difficult, and even after the epidemic is effectively controlled, it is difficult to return to the pre-epidemic level in the short term.
