On October 20, the domestic steel market fell, Tangshan Qian 'an Pu billet factory tax cut 30 to 3590 yuan/ton. 20 black futures market continued to decline, the market mentality is depressed, downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, merchants more price promotion.
Construction steel: On October 20, the average price of 20mm grade 3 seismic rebar steel in 31 major cities across the country was 4039 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton compared with the last trading day. With the resumption of production of some electric furnaces in north and south China, the output of rebar steel rises to a certain extent. Social stocks continued to decline, but apparent consumption declined slightly. In the short term, under the traditional consumption season, the intensity of demand release is less than expected, and the power of price rise is insufficient; Steel supply does not fall on the contrary, the spot price also has a certain inhibition. However, with most steel mills in a state of loss, the willingness to slash prices is not high. Therefore, the domestic construction steel market price may continue to weaken in a narrow range.
Hot rolled coil: On October 20, the average price of 4.75mm hot rolled coil in 24 major cities in China was 3913 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton compared with the last trading day. With the demand for replenishing inventory after the holiday, the market demand gradually drops, and the mood is slightly depressed. The trade end of the market still takes the initiative to reduce inventory and cash the early resources, but the inventory reduction is slow, and the overall downward pressure is still large. Mysteel data release, in addition, the 20 week of hot rolling production from 25600 tons, the factory library from 04900 tons, club library drop 41600 tons, the table again, but the main still is accelerated down library business and market period and speculative demand pick now, actual terminal performance is still a bit weak, and in October 9 - basic demand is regarded as the best time, Later pressure and contradictions are still gradually increasing.
Cold rolled sheet roll: On October 20, the average price of 1.0mm cold roll in 24 major cities across the country was 4485 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton compared with the last trading day. Affected by the weakening of the futures plate, the center of gravity of the cold-rolled coil price has moved down slightly again. The market is not confident enough, and the spot transaction is weak. Some businesses feedback that the market price is dark in the afternoon. In terms of inventory, Mysteel monitored 29 cities on the 20th inventory, this week cold rolled coil social inventory of 2.04 million tons, week on week decreased by 351 million tons, month on month decreased by 352 million tons, year on year increased by 1078 million tons. On the demand side, downstream terminals may remain tepid in October, with some market demand affected by the repeated outbreak. Overall, it is expected that the 21 day domestic cold rolled plate volume price or weak operation.
Medium and heavy plate: On October 20, the average price of 20mm general plate in 24 major cities across the country was 4131 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton compared with the last trading day. Due to the continuous decline in recent prices, traders' pessimism gradually increased in the later period, and most of them were based on the operation of risk aversion and inventory reduction. Therefore, although the overall demand is poor at present, the transaction continues to be depressed, and the inventory and price are slowly decreasing synchronously. For the week, mid-board production rose 13,500 tons, factory inventory fell 0.1,400 tons and social inventory fell 19,900 tons, according to Mysteel data. In summary, due to the recent repeated outbreaks in various places, demand is difficult to have a strong support, it is expected that the domestic medium and heavy plate prices will continue to fluctuate and fall on the 21st.
Market price of raw fuel：
Imported ore: On October 20, Shandong imported iron ore spot market price weak downward, the transaction situation is general. Shandong part of the transaction: Rizhao port, PB powder quoted 705 yuan/ton.
Scrap steel: On October 20, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets in China was 2,559 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, the black futures market continues to weaken, steel demand in general, market pessimism intensified, scrap site significantly lower purchase price and accelerate the clearance of inventory. Considering the current prices of finished products, raw material prices are also under pressure, short-term steel mills have no intention to increase the purchase price of scrap. Comprehensive forecast 21 - day scrap prices to weak down mainly.
Coke: On October 20th, the coke market temporarily operated steadily, the second round of coke price increased, wet quenching coke increased by 100 yuan/ton, dry quenching coke increased by 110 yuan/ton, mainstream steel mills did not respond. At present, most of the coke enterprises in the main producing areas are limited by 20%-50%, and the coke supply continues to tighten. Although the inventory in the coke enterprises is blocked by shipment, the overall inventory pressure is small. Steel mills, the epidemic policy under the influence of multiple factors under the capacity block, steel mills arrived the goods are not good raw materials continue to reduce the inventory trend, short-term inventory demand is still guaranteed, overall coke supply and demand have fallen, coke market temporarily stable operation in the short term.
Steel market price forecast：
On the supply side: Steel production of large varieties was 9.7721 million tons on Friday, up 141,200 tons week on week, according to Mysteel. On October 16, Tangshan steel mill sintering limit lifted, or drive output slightly up. But with more mills in the red, further expansion on the supply side is hard to come by.
Inventory: The total steel inventory this week was 15.1817 million tons, a decrease of 431,100 tons week on week. Among them, the steel mill inventory 4.8335 million tons, week on week increase 0.21 million tons; The public stock of steel was 10.348,200 tons, a decrease of 433,200 tons week on week.
This week the steel market supply and demand to maintain a weak balance, but the market sentiment is biased to pessimism, mainly after the National Day demand has been lukewarm, due to the gradual weakening of the late demand concerns, merchants mainly reduced the price of shipping. In recent days, black futures continued to weaken, but also further added to the market pessimism. Considering the current Tangshan billet loss of about 200 yuan/ton, the majority of steel mills into a small loss, a significant price reduction is not strong, short-term steel prices or continued shock weak.
