Market prices this week overall weak after a strong first, under the traditional slack demand performance light, few of shipment, weeks later period screw after a continuous decline in rebound, together with the federal reserve to raise interest rates fall to the ground, the spot pessimism, low resource volume increment, prices have slight rebound, but the current outbreaks repeatedly demand remains weak, the subsequent will continue to pull up still stay on the sidelines, steel price is how to get to the next week, Let's move on...
First, there are the following factors affecting the steel market
1, two top Federal Reserve officials said they may slow the pace of interest rate hikes
The presidents of both the Richmond and Boston Federal Reserve banks on Friday signaled a possible slowdown in future rate hikes, but neither ruled out further aggressive increases.
2,Steel mill profit rate fell, iron ore port to increase
On the morning of November 4, the market committee of Zhongjiao Association held a market analysis meeting by video. The meeting held that the decline of coke price has market factors, but some enterprises in the industry using individual steel mills to release the price as a pricing method of behavior has a greater impact.
3. Total real estate credit bonds issued in the first 10 months totaled 400 billion yuan
According to the data obtained from the Middle Finger Academy, from January to October of 2022, the total amount of credit bonds issued by housing enterprises was 400.39 billion yuan, down 16.9% year on year, and the amount of bonds issued by private enterprises only accounted for about 5%.
Second, spot market
Rebar: First strong and then weak
This week, the federal reserve to raise interest rates to smooth, bad turn positive, and some steel mills enter a state of repair, capacity relative decline, for the current market to play a supporting role, but in some parts of epidemic situation is still relatively serious, seriously affect the normal cash terminal demand, the recent market instability, relatively frequent fluctuations, is expected next week rebar prices or a stronger before they are weak.
Hot roll: Narrow oscillation
This week, the hot roll market futures board low up, the market volume is increased, but with the recent temperature gradually decreased, the demand is differentiated, and the domestic epidemic is still severe, short term demand release is weak, the price rebound power is not enough, the hot roll price is expected to be stable in a narrow range next week.
Medium plate: First strong and then weak
Traders operating low inventory increased this week, the market resources, slightly pressure still is not big, but the overall resources for the next week, epidemic more significantly suppress market confidence, cool and cold air coming national wide range, such as weak demand cautious outlook, inventory data to fair this week, go to the library acceleration, table need to be improved, the contradiction between supply and demand is not big, next week is expected to price after the first strong weak, shock adjustment.
Strip steel: the shock is weak
At present, the marginal benefit of the steel mill has been broken through, coupled with the continuous accumulation of inventory in the factory, the willingness to overhaul the steel mill increases, and the output may continue to decline slightly next week. Recently, many parts of the country are still affected by the epidemic, and some areas are still in the control stage. With the end of the peak season and the coming of the off-season, the demand is expected to be further weakened. It is expected that the strip steel price or shock will be weak next week.
Profile: first strong and then weak
At present already in early November, and with the advent of a heating season, the temperature gradually lower, steel demand into the traditional low season, despite remaining site after construction demand, but demand is difficult to have the too big breakthrough, other companies have put forward the maintenance plan, and has a tendency to increase, supply pressure or will be reduced, in conclusion, type price next week or will be on the existing situation that after the first strong weak sideways.
Pipe: Narrow oscillation
Pipe market weak after a strong first this week, as the screw lows, tube factory to rise in a row, but market acceptance, the actual transaction will still be dark down, pipe factory library tired this week, tube factory to pressure is in, because of the outbreak, repeatedly starts to drop, downstream demand is still weak, clinch a deal the only local improvement, prices rise remains weak. It is expected that the pipe market will be mainly narrow-range shock next week.
Third, the raw material market
Billet: Oscillating operation
At present, billet delivery in some areas remains at a low level, and it may be difficult to increase significantly in the short term. The inventory of downstream billet steel finished products is on the high side, and most of them are in a state of loss. For billets, they may still be purchased on demand. Current billet products substantial losses, steel companies support price will increase, expected next week billet market or shock slightly stronger operation.
Iron ore: Shock adjustment
Recently due to continuous loss of production of steel mills increased and production for a long time, good steel to ease the circulation. But into the off-season demand, steel mills production enthusiasm is low, iron ore demand continues to decline, in addition to the supply end of port accumulation, peripheral delivery has an increasing trend, up and down the dilemma, next week to see the ore price to maintain shock adjustment pattern.
Coke: narrow and weak
Coke prices remain more early leak rate, the production of emotion, individual coke prices slowing shipments, inventory accumulation, slightly as outbreaks and coking coal prices dropped sharply in the material end, jiao qi boiling coal costs continue to drop and profits have repair, coke enterprises improve the overall capacity utilization, but at the same time the cost side support wanes, coke prices weak state of mind, Coke market is expected to narrow and weak next week.
Scrap steel: Oscillating operation
From the recent arrival of steel mills and daily consumption data, the recent arrival of steel mills began to be lower than the daily consumption level, steel mill inventory showed a decline, out of stock steel mills mining scrap enthusiasm is becoming stronger, forming a positive boost to the current scrap price. But taking into account the current trend of finished products is still not too clear, steel mill profits are difficult to improve, it is expected that next week domestic scrap price shock operation.
Pig iron: weak operation
In the middle and late part of this week, the trend of scrap steel, finished materials, black futures improved, coupled with the iron plant few profits or even losses, the production of iron plant increased pig iron supply reduced, iron plant price decline willingness to reduce, iron price decline slightly slowed down, the market is weak and stable. At present, some steel mills have started the second round of coke increase and decrease, the raw material end support is weak, the business attitude is still not optimistic, it is expected that the pig iron market will continue to run weak next week.
Iv. Comprehensive Suggestions
This week's market showed a rebound, most of the spot is a small increase in the sale, most of the transaction is concentrated in speculation, sustained upward power is limited, short-term cost support, merchants low replenment inventory, the operation on the high positive move. The current macroeconomic, pandemic and off-season backdrop, demand release continued pressure. Volatility is frequent, the market mentality is slightly divergent, the future market is expected to be cautious, so it is expected next week steel prices or first strong after weak, the range of 20-60 temporarily.
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